El Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) concede por primera vez en el último año la victoria al PP, que lograría en las elecciones el 31,4 por ciento de los votos y entre 122 y 140 escaños, si bien un desplome de Vox, que perdería casi la mitad de sus diputados, les impediría gobernar juntos.
El PSOE, como segunda fuerza política, gracias al 31,2 por ciento de voto estimado y una horquilla de entre 115 y 135 diputados, sí podría retener el Gobierno con el apoyo de Sumar, puesto que esta coalición se llevaría el 16,4 por ciento de los sufragios y entre 43 y 50 escaños, según la macroencuesta preelectoral del CIS.
De este modo, el resultado más alto de PP y Vox (con entre 21 y 29 escaños) les colocaría en 169 escaños, a 7 de la mayoría absoluta, mientras que el PSOE y Sumar superarían esta barrera con holgura gracias a los 185 escaños que reunirían si se tiene en cuenta el mejor resultado de sus respectivas horquillas.
El sondeo, confeccionado a partir de 29.201 entrevistas realizadas entre el 8 y el 27 de junio pasados, en plena negociación de los pactos autonómicos y locales de gobernabilidad entre PP y Vox, presenta no obstante un panorama abierto por la amplitud de las horquillas de resultados, de hasta 18 escaños en el caso del PP.
Por ello, aunque el muestreo augura buenas noticias para el bloque de izquierdas conformado por PSOE y Sumar, si se tiene en cuenta el peor escenario de sus resultados que les dejaría a 18 escaños de la mayoría absoluta definida por 176 diputados en el Congreso.
En ese caso el PSOE requeriría del apoyo de los que han sido sus socios habituales en esta legislatura, como ERC, al que el CIS concede un 1,6 por ciento de los votos y entre 5 y 7 diputados, EH-Bildu, cuyo 1,2 por ciento le proporcionaría entre 4 y 7 escaños, o el PNV, que con un 1 por ciento se llevaría entre 3 y 5.
Otras fuerzas políticas
La proyección para otras fuerzas que podrían respaldar a un gobierno de PSOE y Sumar es del 1 por ciento para el BNG y entre 2 y 3 escaños, del 0,6 por ciento para la CUP (de 0 a 1 escaño).
La encuesta apunta para Junts per Catalunya un 1,1 por ciento (entre 3 y 6 puestos en el Congreso) y para Coalición Canaria entre 0 y 1 escaño (0,3 por ciento); Teruel Existe tendría también entre ninguno o un representante con el 0,1 por ciento.
En este contexto es muy significativa la caída de Vox que pronostica el barómetro del CIS, puesto que su 10,6 por ciento de voto estimado le garantizaría entre 21 y 29 escaños, cuando en las pasadas elecciones generales de noviembre de 2019 obtuvo 52.
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